“We’re not witnessing simple incremental changes—we’re experiencing the economic equivalent of switching from analog to digital while still broadcasting.”
THE $33 TRILLION PROBLEM NO ONE IS TALKING ABOUT
Let’s cut through the noise: While everyone debates U.S. interest rates, tariffs, and services inflation, a seismic shift is underway that will completely reshape the global economy. The international system that’s operated since WWII isn’t just changing—it’s shattering.
This isn’t just another market cycle. We’re witnessing a once-in-a-century reset that will determine winners and losers for decades to come.
PREDICTION #1: By 2030, major industries (healthcare, education, financial services) will be fundamentally restructured by AI, with traditional business models becoming increasingly unviable as new entrants capture disproportionate value. Additionally, cybersecurity will emerge as a critical national priority as state-sponsored attacks on infrastructure intensify, creating both enormous risks and opportunities.
Look around and you’ll spot the warning signs:
- Global alliances fracturing in real-time
- The U.S. dollar’s dominance challenged for the first time in generations
- $33T in U.S. debt dwarfing the $29T U.S. economy
- AI replacing knowledge work faster than anyone predicted
- Supply chains reorienting from global to regional
YOUR MONEY IS ON THE LINE
Here’s the reality no one wants to admit: The United States is spending $1T annually just on interest payments—that’s 20% of every U.S. tax dollar collected.
This. Is. Unsustainable.
Unlike the post-WWII era, when population growth drove economic expansion, today most developed nations face birth rates at or below replacement levels. This demographic headwind means we can no longer rely on an expanding workforce to grow our way out of debt. Without massive productivity improvements to compensate for these demographic challenges, savings, investments, and retirement plans across developed economies are all at risk. But this crisis creates unprecedented opportunity for those who see it coming.
PREDICTION #2: The chaos ahead will destroy more wealth than the 2008 financial crisis, but create more new fortunes than the internet revolution.
FIVE PARALLEL BATTLEFIELDS
The competition has already begun—but not where you think. Today’s battles are happening in:
- ECONOMIC WARFARE: Trade restrictions, industrial subsidies, supply chain control
- TECH DOMINANCE: AI supremacy, advanced chips, quantum computing
- GEOPOLITICAL INFLUENCE: Alliance networks, institutional control
- CAPITAL FLOWS: Currency competition, strategic investments
- CYBERSECURITY: State-sponsored attacks on critical infrastructure, intellectual property theft, and digital sovereignty
Singapore’s PM Lawrence Wong didn’t mince words: “The era of rules-based globalization and free trade is over. We are entering a phase that is more arbitrary, protectionist and dangerous.”
PREDICTION #3: Within 18 months, we’ll see a major sovereign debt crisis in at least one developed economy, triggering a fundamental reassessment of global financial systems.
THE AI LIFELINE
Here’s what most are missing: Generative AI isn’t just another tech trend enriching a few dozen founders and a handful of lucky VCs—it’s the only viable solution to our productivity crisis.
While everyone focuses on chatbots and foundational models, the real revolution is happening in how AI is completely rebuilding industries from the ground up.
PREDICTION #4: The next decade’s winners won’t be developers of general-purpose foundational models or those who merely add AI features to existing products. The true victors will be companies that build industry-specific Small Language Models (SLMs) operating in closed environments with proprietary data lakes. These specialized AI systems—purpose-built for healthcare, financial services, education, and other sectors—will deliver exponentially greater value than general-purpose models because they’ll combine domain expertise with data advantages that general systems can’t replicate.
THE TRILLION-DOLLAR OPPORTUNITY
At Group 11, we’re backing companies that exemplify this approach—pioneers developing specialized AI systems with proprietary data advantages in regulated, complex sectors. These aren’t companies adding generic AI capabilities; they’re rebuilding entire industries using purpose-specific models trained on privileged datasets that general-purpose systems can’t access. Here’s how they’re reengineering the most broken parts of our economy:
CYBERSECURITY (3% OF U.S. GDP AND GROWING): Dream Security stands at the intersection of AI and critical national infrastructure protection. As state-sponsored cyber threats escalate, they’re building autonomous defense systems that can identify and neutralize attacks in real-time without human intervention. Their approach addresses both the critical shortage of 3.5 million cybersecurity professionals globally and the exponentially increasing sophistication of nation-state threat actors targeting essential infrastructure.
EDUCATION (6% OF U.S. GDP): Masterschool has revolutionized workforce development through an AI-first approach to education. Operating as accredited institutions in the US and Germany, they receive government funding for each student trained while using advanced AI to scale effectively. Their groundbreaking Maestro platform—an AI-powered career guide—creates personalized learning experiences that adapt to each student’s pace and learning style. This technology enables them to train millions of students across diverse professions critical for future economic growth, from tech specialists to healthcare data scientists and renewable energy experts. By combining government backing with AI-driven instruction that delivers personalized insights and practical tools, they’re addressing the education cost crisis through a public-private partnership that can scale far beyond what traditional institutions could achieve.
HEALTHCARE (18% OF U.S. GDP): Healthee is transforming healthcare efficiency with an AI-powered platform that simplifies benefits navigation for employees while dramatically reducing administrative overhead. Their technology eliminates confusion around healthcare coverage and provides seamless guidance on plans, providers, and costs. Beyond improving health outcomes, they save HR leaders an average of 9 hours weekly on benefits-related tasks, enable insurance brokers to deliver personalized plan recommendations during open enrollment, and help finance executives optimize healthcare investments. In a sector notorious for administrative waste, Healthee’s approach allows organizations to extract maximum value from their healthcare spending without compromising care quality.
FINANCIAL SERVICES (11% OF U.S. GDP): BridgeWise is democratizing access to institutional-quality financial analysis. Their AI engine processes vast amounts of financial data, earnings calls, and market information that would require armies of analysts to interpret manually. By automating this process, they’re reducing information asymmetry in markets while dramatically increasing the productivity of financial professionals. Their technology represents how AI can transform even sophisticated knowledge work that was previously thought to require human judgment.
HOUSING (15% OF U.S. GDP): Venn City is transforming multifamily property management through AI-driven data centralization. Their platform consolidates fragmented property data systems into a unified interface for owners, property managers, and tenants. By integrating financial information, maintenance records, tenant communications, and operational metrics, they enable multifamily property owners to optimize returns, reduce costs, and improve tenant experiences. Their solution helps address the 5-million-unit housing shortage by making existing properties more efficient and profitable, encouraging additional investment in the sector that interest rate adjustments alone cannot stimulate. Their approach significantly reduces operational overhead while delivering better resident experiences across multifamily portfolios.
PREDICTION #5: By 2030, specialized AI systems will capture at least 30% of market share in highly regulated sectors including healthcare administration, cybersecurity, professional education, and financial analysis. These purpose-built solutions will outperform general-purpose AI platforms by leveraging domain-specific data that provides insurmountable competitive advantages, reshaping industries that have historically resisted technological disruption.
PREDICTION #6: By 2030, we’ll see a bifurcated labor market where AI-augmented professionals command significant wage premiums over their non-augmented counterparts in the same fields. This widening productivity gap will create unprecedented social pressure to adopt AI tools, similar to how computers became mandatory for professional work in the 1990s, but at a much faster pace. Organizations that fail to equip their workforce with AI capabilities will find themselves unable to compete for talent or customers.
THIS WILL AFFECT YOU PERSONALLY
Ask yourself:
- Will your job still exist when AI can do knowledge work better and faster?
- Is your company building for this new reality, or just digitizing old processes?
- Are your investments positioned for the industries of tomorrow, or yesterday?
- How much of your wealth is tied to legacy systems that won’t survive this transition?
WHAT YOU SHOULD DO NOW
The window for preparation is closing rapidly. Those who position correctly will not just survive—they’ll capture unprecedented opportunity.
- Identify the inefficiencies in your industry that have resisted decades of improvement attempts
- Question everything about how your organization operates
- Reimagine from scratch what your business would look like if built today
- Focus on fundamental redesign, not incremental enhancement
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme. The last time we saw a technological shift of this magnitude was the internet in the 1990s. Back then, the winners weren’t obvious at first—but by 2000, it was clear who’d seized the future and who’d be left behind. The same pattern is unfolding now, but at 10x the speed. Most are still debating whether to dip their toes in AI while others are already swimming in the deep end. Choose wisely.” —Dovi Frances, General Partner, Group 11
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CONNECT WITH GROUP 11
Want to learn more about how we’re investing in the AI-first future? Visit group11.vc or reach out directly.
This analysis represents our current thinking on major global trends. At Group 11, we continue monitoring developments across economic, technological, and geopolitical domains to identify both risks and opportunities in this rapidly evolving landscape. We’re backing founders who aren’t just adapting to this new era — they’re helping to shape it.